Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has been predicted to emerged victorious in today’s presidential election.
According the ARPM predictive tool poll, that have historically predicted election outcomes with 93% to 98% confidence level, APC will have a ‘comfortable lead in the polls.’.
“The following deductions were projected that People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is seen as a plausible alternative in the undecisive Northwest region which we now project may actually still turn out large numbers of voters as insecurity has subsided.
There ends the good news for the opposition party, as both the same North West and South East also have significant third party candidates in NNPP and Labour Party, which decisively cuts into her potential vote harvest especially from the APC stronghold of Northwest Nigeria.
“APC is strongest in the Southwest & North Central, while remaining super competitive
North East & North West where it is set to win at least one of the two. South South
remains a toss up, while it is set to lose in South East.
“The APC despite its seeming weakness in Northwest, is emerging as a strong player in the South South which is projected to increase turnout in 2023 from about 28% to 35% on the back of rapid cross carpeting in favour of the ruling party.
“Speaking about turn out, PDP’s weakest point is that it is losing ground in South East where it usually builds an unchallenged margin: due to Peter Obi factor, insecurity and increased number of APC governors, this is largely gone.
“Also, with APC over performing in the South West and South South, where turnout is expected to outpace 2019, this creates a significant advantage going into 2023 polls.
“The North Central remain bellwether for APC despite incursions by the Labour Party which seemingly divides PDP votes and accounts for the more than 4 million astray votes difference from third party candidate norm compared to 2019 in the final
results. The factors include the cohesive unity of NC APC Governors, but inability of PDP to hold the Christian North Central together as a result of anti-Fulani rhetoric blowback.
“In all, the ARPM model developed from combination of polling data and predictive analysis based on PVC and voter registration data as well as local election analysis from interviews with political
leaders in each state and regions is predicting THREE scenarios.
“First, there would be low turn-out as APC will win 15.06 million votes at 47.24% of votes, PDP will win 11.55m at 36.13% of votes and Other Parties will for the first time in the nation’s history garner 16.43% of votes with 5.24m votes.
“Secondly, there will be high turn-out as APC will secure 45.46% of votes at 19.443 million versus PDP who will secure 38.54% of votes at 16.482 million voters, while other parties will secure 6.78 million votes. The SS modelling indicates a possibility of a large swing towards any of the
three options on ground by up to 5-10% -changing the call, significantly.
“Thirdly, Optimal Alliance: In this scenario, we blended predictions from political
stakeholders based on updated ground temperature to arrive at blended prediction. This scenario sees APC emerge as winner with 19 million votes, and PDP as runner up with approximately 17 million votes. With just 5% spread between the parties at 45-40%, this will be a close election but with great spread for the winning party. The third parties will secure their highest votes ever as well.”
Recall ARPM has demonstrated historical closer correlation to outcomes of elections in the past and history of improvement especially when analyzed on regional basis.